Analysis on factors that play role in voting of Tripura elections

As Tripura awaits the results of the 2023 Vidhan Sabha elections on March 2, let’s look at some of the factors that influenced voting patterns and decisions in the elections.

On February 16, more than 85 percent voting was done from 60 constituencies in the state. While the state has a majority Bengali population including SC (Scheduled Caste) reservation and general constituencies. 20 constituencies are reserved for ST (Scheduled Tribe).
There are about 19 tribal groups in the state spread across these constituencies and beyond. The BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), INC (Indian National Congress) in alliance with the Left Front, and Tipra Motha (Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance) were major political players in this election.
The analysis is based on interviews, discussions and observations in urban constituencies including Badharghat, Barjala and Pratapgarh and ST-specific constituencies including Takarjala, Bagma and Golaghati.
Was Tripura ever peaceful?
Peace was often discussed among voters. Opinions differed on whether the 25 years of Left Front rule were more peaceful than the previous five years of BJP rule. Incidents of political violence were reported from both sides.
Two terms: ‘bike-bahini’ and ‘Mafia’ are often associated with fear, confusion and violence associated with polling. The former term was associated with the BJP and the latter with the Left parties.Some shared that it was the erstwhile ‘mafia’ of Left parties who joined the BJP when the tide was turning and now became part of the active ‘bike-bahini’. A young BJP worker from Badharghat constituency’s Bhattapukur area smiles, “If someone is investigating the bike gang, there will be no evidence.”

25 years of one-party rule left people yearning for change. And BJP came to power in 2018. It is not clear whether this change has met their expectations or not. However, people were willing to give the ruling party more time, as the government’s performance was hampered for two years due to epidemics.The propaganda of free vaccines and free rations seemed right. The Hindu-Muslim propaganda run by the ruling BJP government succeeded in swaying some voters in favor of the BJP, but the issue of the Citizenship Amendment Act did not matter much.
The BJP, the incumbent government, with access to money and muscle power, as well as a robust propaganda machinery, certainly had many advantages in the recent elections. Moreover, infrastructure development (roads and drainage) and certain other policies have gained popular support for them, especially in urban circles.The Modi factor also worked as many voters saw him as a competent prime minister. Moreover, removing Biplab Deb as Chief Minister and replacing him with Dr Manik Saha was a welcome move by the electorate. Dr. Manik Saha had a clean image among the public and his projection as the Chief Ministerial candidate raised hopes for better governance.
Donation culture and inflation problem
Instances of fundraising for political expediency during Left Front rule were not fondly remembered by voters. According to many, it is a relief that there has been no fundraising for political rallies or events in the last 5 years.Yet, according to others, it is now inflationary instead. Rising food prices were seen as a major evil, especially among the low-income earners, and were therefore hoping for a return to 25 years of Left Front government.
First-time voters and employment prospects
While the older population saw ‘peace’ as the primary issue, for the youth, job prospects were key. Especially for first-time voters, future job prospects are roughly aligned with their hopes for the BJP’s return to power. The reason given is fair selection process and examinations conducted during the last 5 years.According to many young voters, this was a welcome change from the practices of previous Left Front governments, where participation in party meetings and rallies was considered essential if one hoped to get a job.

“Whether we get the job or not, at least there is a fair chance, and hopefully fair competition,” shared a pharmacist from Pratapgarh. A first-time voter from Charipara area of ​​Badharghat constituency said she is studying English honors and wants to become a teacher after completing her B.Ed. And she feels that the current government will be good for job prospects as they will conduct the exams.
However, the issue of 10,323 dismissed teachers in 2014 remains an uncertain question. Their jobs were terminated due to questionable recruitment conditions. After many protests, much debate and legal battles, their future remains uncertain.
Loyalty to Dilip Sarkar’s family
Late Dilip Sarkar, who was earlier with Congress and BJP, was elected MLA for 5 times from Badharghat constituency. He won 4 times from Congress and last time he won from BJP in 2018. However, his death led to a by-election in 2019 and was won by Mimi Majumdar of the BJP. Dilip Sarkar and his family enjoy acceptance and respect among the voters of the constituency.

Although Dilip Sarkar was part of the party, his personality and social attitude left a lasting impression. And based on this, Congress, BJP and All India Forward Bloc (AIFB) fielded candidates from the same family. The Congress candidate withdrew his nomination papers due to his alliance with the Left Front.BJP’s Mina Rani Sarkar (Dilip Sarkar’s sister) and AIFB’s Partha Ranjan Sarkar (Dilip Sarkar’s niece) contested and voters expected a tough contest. While Mina Rani Sarkar’s candidature seems to rely heavily on Dilip Sarkar’s legacy, Partha Ranjan Sarkar is a lawyer and is known to help people a lot. Despite this, the BJP as a party gained in this constituency.
The Bubagra Factor in ST Reserved Constituencies

In ST-specific circles, the youth, women and elders all seemed excited, united and assured of a future led by their Bubagra (a father figure used for the king). ) Pradyot Manikya. Given the overwhelming support, TIPRA Motha is likely to win in 20 ST reserved constituencies.
Although the fledgling party also fielded candidates in Bengali-majority constituencies, they are unlikely to win due to the lack of support and dislike for the idea of ​​greater Tipra land among the Bengali population. Even if Tipra Motha wins 20 seats, the majority mark to form a government is 31 seats which would require a coalition.
Pradyot Manikya has kept this option open in his various speeches and interviews. For party workers, supporters and voters, the question of unity was not seen as a factor. As a group of youth from Bagma constituency shared, “Bubagra knows best, he will take the right decision, we believe in him and we will follow him.”
Although newly formed, TIPRA Motha Party has raised hopes after winning Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) elections in 2021. The coming together of Tripura’s tribal groups in the electoral arena is not a new development. Before TIPRA Motha, IPFT (Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura) had a powerful presence.This time, he was in alliance with the BJP but lost the support of the people as he could not fulfill his promise. Takirjola was the bastion of the IPFT but people complained that after being elected the leaders got rich and forgot the promises made to the people. What makes the formation of a political alliance based on ethnic identity different this time is Bubagra’s leadership.
TTAADC areas were declared long back (constitutional approval was given in 1984). However, the functionality and actual effects have been questioned and contested. The demand now is for ‘direct funding’ to councils and 100 per cent jobs for STs in ADCs. Currently, only 31% of jobs in ADC areas are given to STs and 69% to general category. A direct and full disbursement of funds to the ADC was a demand with the hope of further development in the tribal areas.
Roads leading to interior areas inhabited by tribal groups are in poor condition. Dependent mainly on agriculture and rubber plantations, the chances of government jobs in tribal areas are also low.A woman from Golaghati constituency said that when she approaches the police or hospitals, she faces discrimination because the employees are mostly from the Bengali community. They feel that they need people from their community in such institutions to better protect women.